Videos

Key points: – Indian exports rise to the US and China despite tariffs and rupee depreciation – Electronics, pharmaceuticals, engineering, petroleum, and marine products lead export growth – Significant investment from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) strengthens India’s AI sector – Nifty 50 index up 7%, with renewed optimism tied to potential trade deals and macro stability India’s export sector continues to deliver robust performance despite substantial US tariffs, according to Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue Investment Management. Siva points out that US-bound exports have actually increased, driven primarily by strong gains in electronics and pharmaceuticals, which grew 38% and 20% respectively in November. The rupee’s depreciation, with limited intervention from the central bank, has supported export competitiveness, not only with the US but also with China – Indian exports to China rose over 33% from April to November, fuelled by demand for electronics, engineering goods, petroleum, and marine products. Siva highlights an influx of investment from AI hyperscalers like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), totalling nearly $70 billion for infrastructure and capability centres. With government incentives, a young workforce, and significant digital infrastructure like the Aadhaar card system, India appears well-placed for accelerated growth in AI and efficiency-focused sectors, including healthcare. Amazon’s announced investments are expected to create over one million local jobs, reflecting the country’s favourable demographic profile and digitisation momentum. Looking ahead to 2026, Siva singles out externally facing industries poised for global expansion, suggesting these will benefit most if a US-India trade deal materialises. On the Indian stock market, Siva notes the Nifty 50 index’s steady performance, up nearly 7% for the year and close to record highs, with expectations of a renewed growth trajectory should geopolitical risks ease and trade agreements firm up. Click Here To Watch The Video

Key Points: India accelerating export diversification, seeking new trade agreements Nifty 50 shows softer earnings; mid-cap companies outperform Domestic consumption supported by GST cuts and low inflation Portfolio shift towards banks with sustained focus on export-driven sectors   India’s export momentum remains robust as it diversifies beyond traditional partners, according to Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue Investment Management. Siva points to ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the United States and highlights that India has proactively expanded export relationships with regions including the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Key export categories remain strong, covering generic pharmaceuticals, auto ancillary component parts, gems and jewellery, and seafood. Siva indicates India’s ambition to become a developed economy by 2047 relies on further export growth, leveraging its established expertise and benefiting from global dynamics such as the China plus one strategy. Turning to equities, Siva highlights recent earnings results from the Nifty 50 index with growth of 4-4.5%, noting that banking and financials weighed on the index but should recover cyclically. In contrast, Siva observes mid-cap companies, represented by the 600 index, posted robust 25% earnings growth, driven by sectors like second-tier IT services, auto ancillaries, infrastructure, and cement. He suggests operating leverage and scaling up remain critical themes for these emerging companies. Siva also reports strong growth in Indian consumer sectors, especially in EVs and SUVs, fuelled by GST reductions and improving macro conditions. He shares a shift towards an overweight banking position while maintaining emphasis on export-oriented sectors like pharmaceuticals, expecting renewed focus as trade deals materialise.     Click Here To Watch The Video

Experts & companies in this video Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue Investment Management highlights the ongoing volatility in US-India tariff negotiations, noting that reciprocal tariffs now stand at 25% with an additional 25% imposed for using Russian energy. Siva points to a significant shift in H-1B visa patterns, where Amazon has overtaken Indian IT companies as the top user. Despite 50% of visa holders being Indian nationals, he views that Indian IT companies have evolved to hiring locally and focusing on higher-value practice areas like AI and cybersecurity, limiting their reliance on visas. The latest visa fee increase from around $5,000 to $100,000 is expected to impact US tech firms more than their Indian counterparts. Siva observes that India is unlikely to bow to US pressure to stop importing Russian oil, highlighting that Europe and China import more Russian energy, yet face lower tariffs. Recent government measures such as GST rationalisation and increased income tax thresholds are seen as supportive policies. He notes that these tax changes began on 22 September and have already resulted in higher automobile sales, particularly in the two-wheeler segment. Click Here To Watch The Video

Key Points: Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods expected to minimally affect India’s GDP India continuing Russian oil imports Strategic pivot from India towards Asia, Europe, Middle East underway Bajaj Finance (NSE:BAJFINANCE) viewed favourably amid consumption growth US President Trump’s decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods is set to create only limited direct economic disruption for India, according to Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue Investment Management. Siva sees the bulk of Indian exports—about $400 billion—having roughly 20% exposure to the US, or $85-$87 billion. The direct impact on India’s GDP is estimated at just 2%, with GDP forecasts only declining by 20 to 50 basis points. Siva states that India’s response remains focused on national interests, with the government adamant about continuing imports of Russian oil, despite being singled out relative to countries like China and Turkey. Siva highlights a greater strategic pivot from India towards Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, suggesting that forced US actions could prompt a more unified Asian economic bloc. Companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which have shifted significant iPhone production from China to India, provide employment and sub-economies, but Siva flags a possible retreat by US firms operating in India if tensions intensify. Pharmaceuticals — a major Indian export sector — could also see US consumer prices rise if tariffs escalate. For investors, Siva points to opportunities in local consumption stories, especially non-bank financial companies. Bajaj Finance (NSE:BAJFINANCE) stands out among firms expected to benefit from the pivot towards domestic consumption and continued credit growth. Click Here To Watch The Video

India is now the world’s most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies. In this episode, Magunthan Siva from India Avenue explains India’s massive demographic advantage, how digital infrastructure is transforming productivity, and why the case for active investing in India is so compelling. In this Australian Investors Podcast episode, your host Mitchell Sneddon discusses: – India’s demographic edge and economic growth – The digital transformation (Aadhaar, JAM Trinity) and infrastructure boom – The rise of local Indian investors and the impact of SIPs – Why active investing beats passive in India’s complex market. Topics Covered Investing in India: demographics, policy, and economic tailwinds. Physical and digital infrastructure transformation (JAM, Aadhaar, GST) Why India Avenue backs active investing over passive in India Final thoughts on managing risk and Mugunthan’s career journey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=madNWkDwM7Y

A discussion on ausbiz with Mugunthan Siva and Andrew Geoghegan, about India’s positioning in an environment where global trade discussions dominate the headlines. Is its local demand driven economy, keeping it out of the limelight for now? Also, we discuss Mahindra & Mahindra, one of India’s most successful conglomerates, who is delving deeply into AI across its businesses – Automotive, Tractors, Technology and Financial Services. The company is an astute way to play the India story – and has delivered close to 4x in return since the pandemic. Click Here To Watch The Video

Key points: Mugunthan Siva talks US-India trade talks & $120bn UK deal. Positive Indian economic signs: low inflation, tax cuts, urban consumption rise. Optimistic tech sector outlook amid AI focus; India’s growth potential emphasised. Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue Investment shares that trade talks between the US and India are constructive, although timelines remain uncertain. Narendra Modi’s visit to the US and JD Vance’s trip to India highlight improving relations. India also strikes a $120 billion trade deal with the UK. Mugunthan notes that the Indian economy is showing positive signs, with inflation at a low point and potential cash rate reductions. Upcoming personal tax cuts and promising monsoon forecasts could boost urban consumption, benefiting the restaurant, banking, and non-bank financial sectors. In the tech sector, Mugunthan observes slowed deal activity and underperforming stocks. However, optimism grows for AI integration and digital platforms. As markets recover selectively, focus shifts to companies sustaining earnings growth. India’s economic message emphasises significant growth potential amid global challenges. Click Here To Watch The Video

Mugunthan Siva from India Avenue says that India’s trade with the US, currently at $90 billion, might see gains due to potential free trade agreements. Talks have been positive, with India potentially benefiting from less competition from China. Mugunthan suggests India may emerge strong by capturing more market share globally, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT services. The country could become a low-cost producer amid shifting trade dynamics, with Apple increasing production there. On Australia-India trade relations, Mugunthan notes untapped potential, especially in agriculture, IT services, and education. With previous minimal trade, leaders have discussed expanding this relationship, offering growth opportunities for both nations. Click Here To Watch The Video