2025

The weakness of the INR in 2025 presents a double-edged sword for investors and a boost for Indian exporters. The Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated sharply in 2025, trading near historic lows against the US Dollar (USD) and weakening relative to the Australian Dollar (AUD) and other Asian currencies such as the Chinese Yuan and Singapore Dollar. To a degree this is a shift from an overvalued currency (due to India’s strong macro fundamentals) towards fair value. Vs USD YTD Malaysia 7.76% Australia 5.90% Singapore 4.72% Taiwan 4.39% China 3.14% Japan 110% South Korea -0.15% Philippines -1.86% Indonesia -3.37% Vietnam -3.41% India -5.08% Source: tradingview.com This slide has been driven by persistent foreign portfolio outflows, a widening current account deficit due to high oil imports, and the strength of the USD amid elevated US interest rates. Compared to regional peers, the INR has shown greater vulnerability in 2025. The slide has been more pronounced relative to the AUD, falling close to 12% after spending the previous 5 years in a tight trading range between Rs. 52-58 to 1 AUD. However, India’s oil import bill remains circumspect due to the weak price of oil. Forex reserves remain close to its all-time high at US$688bn, despite recent use by the RBI to support the currency. The CAD-to-GDP has risen to 1.3% but is still well-off its 5% level in 2012-2013 when the country was considered part of the “fragile-five”. One of the issues has been gold-imports (given rising prices) – knowing the love Indian’s have for the yellow metal.    An interesting aside is the extraordinary rise in wealth of Indian households due to rising gold and equity prices. Implications for Australian Investors For Australian investors in Indian equities, INR weakness has created both challenges and opportunities: Returns Pressure: Equity gains in rupee terms are diluted when converted back to AUD, reducing short-term portfolio performance. Currency Risk: Volatility in INR adds uncertainty to investment outcomes, requiring careful risk management. Entry Opportunity: Depreciation has lowered the effective cost of Indian assets in AUD terms, creating a potential entry point for long-term investors. Strategic Outlook for 2026 Looking ahead, INR weakness may set the stage for stronger returns: Valuation Advantage: Depressed currency levels make Indian equities more attractively priced for foreign investors. Structural Growth: India’s corporate earnings trajectory, driven by consumption, infrastructure, and digital transformation, remains intact. Potential Rebound: If global commodity prices stabilize and capital inflows return, INR could strengthen, potentially amplifying returns for those who enter at current levels. Benefits for Indian Companies While INR depreciation poses challenges for import-heavy sectors, it offers clear advantages for exporters: Enhanced Competitiveness: IT services, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and auto component manufacturers benefit as their USD revenues translate into higher INR earnings. Global Demand Alignment: A weaker rupee makes Indian goods and services more cost-effective globally, reinforcing India’s role in outsourcing and manufacturing supply chains. Cash Flow Strength: Export-oriented firms enjoy stronger rupee-denominated profits, supporting reinvestment and expansion. Conclusion INR weakness in 2025 has pressured foreign investor returns but simultaneously created a strategic opening.  For Australian investors, the currency’s decline offers a potential entry point into Indian equities heading into 2026, while Indian exporters stand to gain from rising global competitiveness.  The balance of risks and opportunities suggests that INR depreciation, though challenging in the short term, may ultimately reinforce India’s long-term growth story.

The Global Economy The structure of the global economy is a complex, interconnected system shaped by production, trade, finance, technology, and governance across nations. It’s not static—it evolves with geopolitical shifts, innovation, and demographic trends. Each country contributes through its GDP, labour force, and resource base. GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) The conventional approach for gauging a country’s GDP involves the expenditure method, wherein the total is derived by aggregating expenditure on fresh consumer goods, new investments, government outlays, and the net value of exports. GDP is generally comprised of Primary (Agriculture, Mining, Raw Materials), Secondary (Manufacturing, Industrial Production) and Tertiary (Services). Increasingly, contributions are also coming from knowledge-based industries like technology, R&D and innovation. Economies are classified as developed, emerging, or developing, with differing roles in global trade and capital flows. In 2025, the Global economy has reached a size of US$106.5tn, with the dominant economies being: Global Trade The overall size of global trade in goods and services is estimated at approximately US$32.5tn annually. Despite the development of “trade wars” through Trump tariffs, global trade continued to expand at a slower rate in Q1 2025 and likely rose further in Q2 (forecast 2% growth for Q2), potentially increasing byUS$300bn in the first half of 2025. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, continued resilience in trade will depend heavily on policy clarity, geoeconomic developments, and supply chain adaptability. On the negative side, global economic growth is expected to slow down in many regions, suggesting that international trade may face slower growth. Moreover, the potential imposition of higher tariffs in the United States and the risk of broader trade conflicts pose significant downside risks. The United States economy has a significant deficit when it comes to Goods Trade. This would increase its focus on reducing deficits (through tariffs or improved negotiation) with countries/regions like China, Europe, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Japan and India. India’s Economy India’s GDP is driven by services because of a unique blend of historical evolution, demographic advantages, digital infrastructure, and global demand, a path that diverges from the traditional agriculture-to-industry-to-services trajectory seen in many developed economies. Services have a 55% share of Gross Value Added (GVA) for FY25, 27% Industry and 18% Agriculture. There are reasons why this has occurred, which we highlight below: – Unlike Western economies that industrialised before scaling services, India transitioned directly from agriculture to services. – Manufacturing faced bottlenecks; land acquisition, labour laws, and infrastructure, while services scaled faster with fewer physical constraints. – India produces millions of English-speaking, tech-savvy graduates annually. – This enabled rapid growth in IT, BPO, financial services, healthcare, and education, attracting global outsourcing demand. – Platforms like UPI, Aadhaar, DigiLocker, and ONDC have created a seamless digital ecosystem. – Services, from payments to telemedicine, are now accessible across Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, driving consumption and productivity. – India hosts over 1,580 GCCs supporting IT, finance, HR, and analytics for global firms. – These centres have moved up the value chain, contributing billions in export revenue and creating high-value jobs. – Government initiatives like Digital India, Startup India, and PLI for services have accelerated formalisation and innovation. – FDI inflows into services consistently outpace manufacturing and agriculture.   India’s Trade – Navigating the Next Frontier India’s total exports reached $820.9bn in 2024-25, a growth of 5.49% compared to $778.1bn in 2023–24. As per RBI data, India’s exports have nearly doubled from $468bn in 2014-15. India exports goods and services to approximately 200 countries around the world. Countries like India are not significant when it comes to global trade, with the focus historically on providing for local requirements, particularly in areas like Agriculture and Manufacturing. However, certain industries have continued to evolve over the last 30 years. IT Services has been the leader, with India exporting close to US$400bn in services. However, India will need to increase its goods exports in areas where it is already building proficiency. This includes the following areas: – Auto and Ancillaries (US$75bn) – Refined Petroleum (US$60bn) – Electronic Goods (US$39bn) – Pharmaceuticals (US$31bn) – Textiles (US$16bn) – Gems and Jewellery (US$30bn) – Chemicals (US$29bn)   India’s Growth Trajectory and Global Ambition – The Government of India had boldly set a challenge of US$2tn of exports by FY30. – According to McKinsey, India could gain up to $0.8tn to $1.2tn from trade-flow shifts by 2030 and increase the country’s GDP share for manufacturing from 16% in 2023 to 25% by 2030. – India’s exports are projected to skyrocket from $770bn to $1.7tn by 2028, covering both services and merchandise, representing a 17% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Digitally influenced exports across the top five verticals alone are expected to exceed $100bn by 2028.   Not only would this be a profound development for India’s economy, but it will require a pivot for equity investors who are active, away from more expensive local demand-driven businesses, towards businesses that are at the forefront of export growth and excellence.   Key Drivers for India’s Export Growth 1. Economic Factors Growing Wellspring of Innovation and Talent: India is home to approximately one-third of the world’s STEM graduates, who are driving innovations in areas like electric vehicles (EVs) and pharmaceuticals. India is a leading contender for global IT capability centres, with engineering, research, and development (ER&D) sourcing from India projected to increase from $44-45bn today to over $130-170bn by 2030. Greater Appeal as a Manufacturing Site: India has increased its share of global exports in several categories. Electronics exports to the United States alone are expected to rise from about $10bn to $80bn by 2030, with global exports potentially reaching $1tn by 2030.6 The “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” reforms are boosting the manufacturing sector, with its contribution to GDP estimated to increase from 15.6% to 21% by 2031, and manufacturing exports expected to double by 2031. Historically Low Labour Costs: India has traditionally offered competitive labour costs, which are expected to remain so due to increasing workforce participation

Despite India’s robust macroeconomic trajectory, anchored by resilient GDP growth, strong domestic demand, and rising global relevance, its equity market performance over the past 12 months has been underwhelming. Short-term softness reflects valuation resets, earnings moderation, and global risk aversion, not structural weakness. Over a five-year horizon, India remains the top-performing equity market globally, delivering 18% annualised returns in USD terms, and maintaining leadership even in AUD terms. AUD-based returns (as of end 29.08.2025) 1 Year 3 Years p.a. 5 Years p.a. MSCI India -8.5% 9.4% 15.9% MSCI World 19.9% 20.3% 15.7% MSCI Australia 12.4% 13.1% 12.6% MSCI EM 21.1% 12.5% 7.8% MSCI China 53.0% 11.6% 0.4% Source: MSCI Over the past five years, India has delivered stellar equity returns, prompting many global investors to treat it as a distinct subset within the equity asset class. Yet, the last 12 months have been startlingly weak, raising questions despite the strength of India’s macroeconomic fundamentals. Valuation Reset India’s forward P/E peaked at 25x in September 2024, fuelled by US$5bn/month in domestic liquidity This followed 20% annualised earnings growth from FY20–FY24, as India rebounded strongly post-COVID Softer Earnings FY25 profit growth normalized to ~11%, closer to long-term averages IT services and FMCG posted muted results amid margin pressure and global demand softness Exporters faced headwinds from weak global trade and pricing pressures Trade Wars & Geopolitics US tariffs disrupted global supply chains, complicating India’s export ambitions India’s goal of US$1 trillion in merchandise exports by FY30 (15% CAGR) faces compliance and logistics hurdles Currency Volatility The AUD appreciated from ₹56 to ₹58, eroding unhedged returns by ~4% over the past year Currency drag has masked underlying performance for Australian investors India Avenue Equity Fund Over the past 12 months, our Fund has underperformed its benchmark by 2.4%, after accounting for management fees and Indian capital gains taxes. This short-term softness reflects broader market dynamics, including valuation resets, softer earnings, and negative sentiment. 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a. -10.89% 10.42% 17.34 The underperformance has been driven by: Overweight positions in export-oriented sectors like IT Services and Pharmaceuticals were impacted by US tariff uncertainty, which disrupted global supply chains and dampened sentiment. The market rotated toward Finance, Consumption, and local demand-driven sectors, where we remained underweight due to valuation discipline Our small-cap overweight, a segment with superior earnings growth, underperformed relative to the Nifty 50, driven by valuation compression and liquidity dynamics from local investor flows Our underweight to Banks, which comprises ~30% of the benchmark, and to Metals and Infrastructure, reflected our caution around cyclicality and stretched valuations Periods of underperformance have historically coincided with: 2018–2019: Overvaluation and slowing macro 2022: Inflation and rate hikes 2025: Tariff-driven recalibration of earnings expectations Yet in each case, our long-term discipline and thematic conviction have delivered net outperformance over 3 and 5 years. What have we done? Over the last 12 months, we observed a shift in the market environment that appeared less conducive to our investment process, particularly one that favours high-conviction, bottom-up stock selection in small and mid-cap segments. In response, we made a deliberate decision to reduce our active share by increasing exposure to large-cap stocks, aligning more closely with benchmark composition while maintaining our core investment principles.This tactical adjustment was driven by: Elevated macro uncertainty, including tariff risks and global trade disruptions Valuation compression in small caps despite strong earnings momentum Rotation into benchmark-heavy sectors like banks and consumption, where we’ve historically been underweight due to valuation discipline We remain conviction-led but adjust our positioning when market dynamics warrant it. Source: Foresight Analytics Our investment philosophy is rooted in identifying growth companies at sensible valuations, particularly lower down the cap curve. This approach allows us to uncover businesses: Growing faster than the broader market Trading at more attractive valuations Often overlooked by benchmark-heavy strategies By September 2024, that edge had temporarily narrowed. Stocks across the cap spectrum, whether cyclical or structural, were trading at elevated valuations. Our fund’s typical discount to benchmark P/E had effectively disappeared, driven by liquidity and sentiment. Source: Foresight Analytics The “discount” P/E our fund typically operates with is now more attractive than it was 12 months ago. This creates fertile ground for rebuilding high-conviction exposure in companies with strong earnings momentum and long-term potential. Outlook Over the past six months, India’s macroeconomy has not stood still—it’s quietly accelerated. While equity markets have paused, the underlying economic engine continues to fire on multiple cylinders. Macro Resilience Composite PMI at 63.2: A 17-year high, with services seeing the fastest new order growth since 2010 and solid employment gains Interest Rate Cuts: RBI has delivered 100bps of easing (6.50% → 5.50%), with scope for more if real growth moderates from 7.8% YoY in Q2 FY26 Inflation Control: CPI dropped to 1.6% in July 2025, offering policy flexibility and boosting real incomes Policy Tailwinds Union Budget FY26: Income tax relief for lower brackets and GST rationalisation across key categories Capex Surge: Central government capital expenditure up 33% YoY in the first four months of FY26, with state-level pickup expected Southwest Monsoon: At 105% of LPA, supporting rural wealth and easing food inflation FTA Momentum: UK deal signed, with more in the pipeline, accelerating India’s pivot from US-centric trade Strategic Portfolio Positioning Domestic Demand: Liquidity injections and policy support should drive a Q4CY25 consumption rebound → Our Fund has increased exposure to financials and consumption stocks to capture this inflection Export Valuations: Tariff uncertainty has reset valuations in IT Services and Pharmaceuticals, creating asymmetric upside → We remain overweight in these sectors, anticipating a more favourable trade environment FII Sentiment & the Return Path FIIs have rotated out of India toward China, Korea, Taiwan, and broader Ems Yet India’s macro strength and earnings resilience remain unmatched → We expect FIIs to re-engage, reinforcing the structural story already embraced by local investors Source: Motilal Oswal, Bulls & Bears August 2025

Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd. (SAMIL), founded in 1986 in partnership with Japan’s Sumitomo Wiring Systems, has transformed into a significant global manufacturing and engineering business. Headquartered in Noida, SAMIL has built trust with the world’s leading automotive manufacturers by delivering high-quality, safety-critical components—from wiring harnesses and polymer modules to vision systems and integrated assemblies. With operations in over 41 countries and more than 350 manufacturing facilities1, SAMIL plays a vital role in enabling the mobility of millions of vehicles worldwide. Over the years, SAMIL has proven that it is much more than an auto component supplier. It has strategically diversified into adjacent and high-potential sectors like aerospace, consumer electronics, health technology, and industrial systems. This expansion has not only reduced its dependence on cyclic automotive demand but has also positioned the company to benefit from megatrends such as electrification, digitalisation, and global supply chain realignment. In FY25 alone, SAMIL’s aerospace revenue grew nearly fivefold to NZ$337m1, with growing contributions from semiconductors and consumer electronics manufacturing. A Business Model Built for Resilience and Relevance A feature of SAMIL’s model is its diversification. No single customer, component, or country contributes more than 10% of the company’s total revenue1. This structure offers resilience against volatility in any single market or product line. The company serves a roster of global clients—Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Hyundai, Tata Motors, and more—while maintaining a balanced presence in India, Europe, North America, China, and other key markets. More than 50% of SAMIL’s revenue today comes from emerging economies1. SAMIL is stepping up its game by becoming more than just a parts supplier. Its “3CX10” strategy seeks to diversify across Customers, Components, and Countries is helping it spread risk and grow steadily across different markets. The company is now offering bundled systems instead of single components. That means it’s selling more parts per vehicle, boosting revenue every time a car rolls off the line. As carmakers (OEMs) look to simplify their supply chains and manage growing product complexity. especially with the shift toward electric and smart vehicles, SAMIL is offering complete, ready-to-fit solutions. Its strengths in design, engineering, and manufacturing are giving automakers more reasons to work with it, not just as a vendor, but as a long-term partner. Figure 1: SAMIL Presentation on Results Q4 FY25 Disciplined Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Capital Deployment FY25 was a landmark year for SAMIL in terms of financial performance. Consolidated revenue grew 15% year-on-year, EBITDA rose to +17% YoY and profit attributable to shareholders increased by 40% to NZ$733m. The company improved its return on capital employed to 17.2% and maintained a low net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.9×1. In FY25 alone, the company invested NZ$855m in capital expenditure, with nearly half of it directed toward non-automotive businesses and greenfield expansion in emerging markets. With 14 greenfield projects under development and nine expected to go live in FY26, the company is preparing to serve rising demand across industries—from aviation components in India to integrated electronics in Mexico. Its capex plan of NZ$1bn for FY26 reflects both confidence in future demand and strategic foresight in capacity building. Figure 2: SAMIL Presentation on Results Q4 FY25 1 statistics above and the diagram are from SAMIL Presentation on Results Q4 FY25 All statistics above and the diagram are from SAMIL Presentation on Results Q4 FY25 An Investment in Growth, Stability, and Transformation Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd. is not simply riding the auto wave. It is focused on building a diversified, tech-enabled, and globally integrated growth engine. It has achieved this through organic (capex) and inorganic growth (acquisitions). As India strengthens its position in global manufacturing, SAMIL is poised to lead that charge across multiple industries. The company is one of the approximately 70 holdings of the India Avenue Equity Fund. CLICK HERE TO READ THE COMPLETE ARTICLE A copy of the PDS for the India Avenue Equity Fund (H Class) can be obtained by writing to India Avenue on IA@indianavenue.com.au or by visiting http://www.indiaavenue.com.au. Equity Trustees Limited is the Responsible Entity (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL 240975) for the India Avenue Equity Fund (H Class). This Note (‘Note’) has been produced by India Avenue Investment Management Limited (‘IAIM’) ABN 38 604 095 954, AFSL 478233 and has been prepared for informational and discussion purposes only. This does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or financial product or service. Any such offer or solicitation shall be made only pursuant to a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum, or other offer document (collectively ‘Offer Document’) relating to an IAIM financial product or service. This Note does not constitute a part of any Offer Document issued by IAIM. The information contained in this Note may not be reproduced, used, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without prior written consent of IAIM. 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India’s macro environment is entering a sweet spot. Weexpect corporate earnings to pick-up after a weak FY25, overFY26–28. This view is supported by a revival in private capex,operating leverage, and broader economic formalisation. Concurrently, both domestic and global interest rate cyclesare turning supportive. Whilst Indian equity marketvaluations are by no means cheap, it is our view that earningsgrowth and the rate-cut cycle will be supportive.   Earnings Upside: Key Drivers 1) Capex India’s private capex cycle is clearly accelerating, marking a significant shift after nearly a decade of underinvestment. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has risen from 27.1% of GDP in FY21 to approximately 31% in FY25 [1], reflecting increasing deployment of capital by businesses from FY21-25. Source: MSCI, Care Rating, RIB This momentum is most visible across core sectors such as manufacturing, buoyed by Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes [2] and supply chain diversification, alongside infrastructure investments spanning transportation networks, urban mobility, and data centres. Simultaneously, the renewable energy sector is witnessing strong inflows, with rapid expansion in solar, green hydrogen, and battery storage projects [3]. Whilst shorterterm trends can provide mixed signals, there has been an emergence of a broad-based, secular capex revival from FY21. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation – National Accounts Statistics 2024 Press Information Bureau – PLI Schemes Overview India passed 100 GW of installed renewable capacity in 2021 and is targeting 450 GW by 2030 Major projects include 50 MWh battery storage in Leh and 2,000 MWh tenders by SECI 2) Operating Leverage Operating leverage is playing a pivotal role in amplifying earnings across several sectors as revenue growth picks up pace. During the downturn, many companies absorbed their fixed costs, whether through headcount rationalization, automation, or tighter cost controls which created a leaner operating base. Now, with even modest topline recovery, profits are expanding at a much faster rate due to this embedded leverage. In industries like capital goods manufacturers and auto companies, higher capacity utilisation over time and improved pricing power, are enhancing margins. Select industrials are benefiting from rising volumes without corresponding cost increases, while banks are seeing operating ratios improve as loan growth resumes. 3) Deleveraged Corporate Balance Sheets A defining strength of India Inc’s current earnings cycle is the significant deleveraging achieved over the past decade. From FY00 to FY24, the net debt-to-equity ratio for the Nifty 500 (excluding financials) fell from over 1.0× to 0.4×. The improvement has accelerated from 2015, reflecting prudent financial discipline, improved cash flows, and reduced reliance on external borrowing. Source: CMIE, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Internal Research This balance sheet repair has translated into materially lower interest expenses, thereby enhancing net margins across sectors. With the domestic interest rate cycle now showing signs of easing, companies are also poised to benefit from favorable refinancing conditions, further amplifying profitability. These leaner capital structures not only create financial resilience but also offer strategic flexibility for growth initiatives, including capital expenditure, acquisitions, or increased shareholder payouts. Structural Tailwinds 1) Formalisation One of the most powerful structural shifts driving India’s earnings trajectory is the rapid formalisation of its economy. Key policy reforms—such as the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the adoption of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and the rollout of the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC)—have enhanced transparency, traceability, and regulatory compliance across industries. Source: GSTN, NCPI, Nielsen, RBI, Ministry of Finance, Industry Reports This has led to a gradual but decisive shift in market share from informal, unregulated players to organized, listed companies that benefit from scale, governance, and access to capital. Sectors like consumer goods, logistics, and light manufacturing have seen particularly pronounced gains, as digital transactions and formal supply chains erode the traditional cost advantages of the informal sector. For investors, this formalisation trend strengthens earnings visibility, supports margin expansion, and improves long-term valuation sustainability for listed companies 2) Global Diversification India is emerging as a key beneficiary of the global “China+1” strategy, as multinational companies seek to diversify their supply chains beyond China. This shift is creating significant export-led growth opportunities for Indian manufacturers, particularly in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals (especially APIs), and automotive components. Supported by cost advantages, a large skilled workforce, and government incentives such as Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, India is positioning itself as a scalable and reliable manufacturing hub. Source: DGFT, Commerce Ministry, PLI Dashboard, Invest India As global firms ramp up investments and partnerships, Indian exporters are gaining both market share and access to high-value global supply chains, resulting in improved topline growth, stronger visibility, and enhanced competitiveness. 3) Financialisation India’s equity markets are seeing a fundamental shift driven by rising domestic investor participation. Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) flows have crossed US$2.3bn per month, reflecting growing awareness and confidence in long-term wealth creation through equities. Source: AMFI, NSE, NSDL, SEBI This has helped retail investors increase their share of NSE 500 ownership to over 8%, up from less than 5% a decade ago. Alongside this, strong and consistent inflows from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), including mutual funds, insurers, and pension funds, are providing a stable valuation anchor for the market. Together, these trends are creating a structural pool of domestic capital that reduces dependence on foreign flows and enhances market resilience. Rate Cycle: Global and Domestic 3) Global As global inflation eases, major central banks are expected to cut interest rates two to three times in 2025. This shift toward a more accommodative policy stance is fostering a “risk-on” sentiment across international markets. For India, this environment presents a clear advantage: its strong macro fundamentals, robust earnings trajectory, and policy stability make it an attractive destination for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) seeking both growth and resilience. As global capital looks to rebalance toward emerging markets with credible reform stories, India is well positioned to benefit from increased inflows and heightened investor interest. 2) Domestic The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to begin its easing cycle by the fourth quarter of FY25, as inflation trends lower and growth stabilizes. This shift in

Markets AUD based returns (end 04.04.2025) MTD YTD 1 year MSCI India 0.46% -3.13% 7.40% MSCI EM 1.62% 3.92% 15.99% MSCI China 1.32% 15.79% 49.47% ASX 200 Accum. -2.23% -4.97% 1.56% MSCI NZ 1.92% -7.71% 0.14% MSCI World -5.69% -7.98% 8.82% Source: MSCI. Data as of 04/04/25 China and Emerging Markets have been the leader over the last 12 months and YTD as stimulus measures and cheap valuations seem to have appeased investors who had concerns over allocating to China. The Indian equity markets pulled back significantly from September 2024 to February 2025 (15% from peak to trough), driven by China stimulus, concerns about Trump tariffs and a recalibration of earnings growth back to the longterm run rate of 10% (< last 3-year average of 20%). MTD so far, whilst Trump tariffs have increased global equity market volatility, the fall in the Indian equity markets have been balanced by the drop in the AUD. Market volatility remains a concern due to newly announced tariffs by President Trump and potential retaliatory measures. Inflation eased significantly to 3.6%, allowing the Reserve Bank of India opportunity to extend its rate-cut cycle later this month, which would support economic growth. We look forward to 4Q earnings results from mid-April to end of May Themes Country Tariff Rate Trade Deficit US$bn China 34% 295 European Union 20% 236 Vietnam 46% 123 Taiwan 32% 74 Japan 24% 68 South Korea 26% 66 India 27% 46 Source: Reuters.com The Trump Administration has imposed tariffs over and above the 10% currently imposed. Some of the major economies to be impacted are listed below. India does not have a huge incumbent trade position with the US, for a major impact. Asset classes impacted globally were equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq and currencies like the USD and AUD, in favour of haven assets like bonds, gold and low-risk currencies. Subsequently China has imposed reciprocal tariffs of 34% on US. It is likely that as trade wars intensify, leading to a slowdown in global growth and increasing inflation. India’s exports to the US are Gems & Jewellery, Pharmaceuticals, Textiles, Machinery, Petroleum Products, Chemicals, Vehicles and Seafood. Additionally, India is a significant exporter of IT Services, with over US$200bn (70% of this to the US), which may also be impacted. However, India appears better placed than exporters like Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Indonesia. Sector Impacts: Textiles, Agriculture, Steel & Aluminium, IT Services, Auto components. The US has raised average import tariffs on Indian goods to 26% from 3.5%. The overall surplus in trade position for India in FY24 was exports of US$78bn, compared to imports of US$42bn. Generic Pharma (US$9bn in FY24) was exempted from tariffs at present, playing a crucial role in reducing healthcare costs in the US (estimated US$200bn p.a.). Impact on India’s GDP growth is expected to be -0.4% (Elara Research) for FY26. Local demand sectors and manufacturing favouring import substitution, driven by government orders, are likely to perform better in the short term. INDIA AVENUE EQUITY FUND The India Avenue Equity Fund (IAEF) rose by 0.13% over the past 2 weeks and 5.72% in the last month (to end of 3rd April), largely driven by a rebound in the broader Indian stock market and stock-specific movements in the portfolio. However, on Friday April 4th, markets in India fell 1.9% in response to the tariffs. Importantly, though the INR appreciated more than 4% against the AUD – highlighting the volatility of the AUD and its negative response to volatility and weak equity markets. This should Kaveri Seeds was driven by a boost in the agricultural budget announced by the government in February 2025. The stock has a 2% weight in the portfolio. Coromandel International proposed plans to acquire a 53% stake in NACL Industries, an agrochemical firm. The Fund took profit on the news but still holds 1% in the portfolio. Maharashtra Seamless rose after receiving new orders for the supply of seamless pipes in the oil and gas space, indicating robust demand in the sector. (0.6% of the portfolio). Disclaimer Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the performance of any IAIM financial product or service or the amount or timing of any return from it. There can be no assurance that an IAIM financial product or service will achieve any targeted returns, that asset allocations will be met or that an IAIM financial product or service will be able to implement its investment strategy and investment approach or achieve its investment objective. Certain economic, market or company information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by third parties. 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Indian markets are down 14.0% from their peak in late September 2024, as measured by the MSCI India Price Index in Rupee terms. In Australian Dollar Terms, the fall is less punchy 8.1% due to the weakness of the AUD over the period. Whilst 14% is quite a significant cut, it comes on the back of an all-mighty rally post COVID-19. Australian investors investing in the India story made 24% per annum or 2.6x their investment from 31 March 2020 to 30 September 2024. That’s simply investing in an Index of approximately 150 stocks. Actively managed investments like the India Avenue Equity Fund investors made 2.8x over the same period after all fees. So why have Indian markets pulled back 14% over the last 4 months. We associate it to some of the following reasons: Introduction of China stimulus which led to foreign investors withdrawing some allocation from India in favour of regions like China. Additionally, the US Presidential election also led to a greater focus on the US market and what seems to be a ‘home bias’ in repatriation of capital. Weaker earnings in 2QFY25 in India (September Quarter) from a pace of 20.6% annualised from FY20 to FY24. We  anticipate normalisation of earnings post pandemic has occurred, and growth rates will revert to the long-term run rate of 10-12% – aligning to nominal GDP growth. Lower spend on Infrastructure and Capex by the Government, with diversion towards subsidies and handouts post-election in June 2024. In an environment where private capex remains elusive, the market is concerned by lack of government spending and a focus on fiscal restraint in managing the fiscal deficit towards 4.5% of GDP. Weak consumption demand and cyclically high food inflation, keeping the RBI from easing monetary policy in a more significant manner. CPI rose from 3.65% in August to 6.21% in October, driven largely by rising food prices.  A weaker INR relative to the USD has meant some of Forex Reserves accumulated from India’s successful services and manufacturing stories have been culled. Forex Reserves have fallen from US$705billion to US$623bn over the last few months as the central bank focused on “defending the currency”. The questions being asked are whether this is a show of cyclical weakness or a more structural slow down of India’s growth. It is our view that it is less likely to be a structural slowdown of India’s long-term growth potential and more likely to be a recalibration of the appropriate valuation for normalising earnings growth. According to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, the expectations are for a run rate of 12% from FY24-27. Valuations therefore are approximately 19x on a one-year forward basis, which appear reasonable, without being exciting. An analysis of previous market falls ( last 10 years) – measured by MSCI India (Net) in AUD ( our product benchmark). Period Duration(Months) Drawdown Subsequent 12 Months February – April 2015 2 12.5% -3.5% December – February 2016 2 16.0% 17.4% August – October 2018 2 13.7% 20.8% January – May 2020 4 20.9% 44.2% January – June 2022 5 13.1% 17.9% November – February 2023 3 12.0% 42.2% September – January 2025 4 8.1% ? In India’s previous drawdowns (from 2000-2015, in AUD terms), the average was higher at 16% (excluding the GFC drawdown of 57%). The quantum of drawdowns in Indian equity markets appear to have receded as local investors have become a larger component of market cap. Whilst this may reverse at some point, the natural assumption would be that a broader base of investor types should reduce volatility in an equity market. Whilst the current drawdown may extend if 3QFY25 earnings are weaker than expected or the upcoming Union Budget is unsatisfactory relative to expectations, the potential of upside also increases, depending on how deep the cut is.   Disclaimer This Note (‘Note’) has been produced by India Avenue Investment Management Limited (‘IAIM’) ABN 38 604 095 954, AFSL 478233 and has been prepared for informational and discussion purposes only. This does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or financial product or service. Any such offer or solicitation shall be made only pursuant to a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum, or other offer document (collectively ‘Offer Document’) relating to an IAIM financial product or service. 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The global economic landscape is currently marked by moderate growth and easing inflation, though it remains fraught with risks and uncertainties. According to the latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, global growth is projected to be around 3.2% in 2025. This figure is slightly below the historical average, reflecting challenges such as high central bank policy rates, fiscal tightening, and low productivity growth. Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, with global headline inflation projected to fall to 4.4% in 2025. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, with potential threats including geopolitical tensions, commodity price spikes, and persistent inflationary pressures. Policymakers face the dual challenge of managing the final descent of inflation while ensuring fiscal policies are sustainable and rebuilding economic buffers. Structural reforms and efficient multilateral coordination are also crucial for promoting productivity growth and mitigating the effects of climate change. In 2024, markets defied expectations of over-valuation in the US, India, and other select countries,performing exceptionally well. A stimulus-driven surge in the Chinese equity market during thesecond half of the year significantly boosted emerging market (EM) returns. India, now accountingfor 20% of EM, also played a crucial role in this positive outcome. The US markets, representing nearly 75% of the MSCI World Index, had a substantial positive impacton global developed market investors, especially those invested in the “Magnificent 7” tech giants.The tech sector continues to drive growth and employment in the US. As we enter 2025, investor caution is rising due to high valuations in regions like the US and India. Incontrast, Australia and New Zealand, while less expensive, are experiencing lower earnings growth.China stands out as an anomaly, with the potential for a stimulus-driven rebound and currentlytrading at low valuations. India is projected to be the fastest-growing major economy in 2025, with GDP growth expected to be around 6.5% to 6.6%. This impressive growth relative to other regions, is driven by a robust middle class, sustained investment, and strong consumer spending. SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – OCTOBER 2024 India’s significant and youthful population provide a favourable demographic backdrop for rising GDP per capita. This will occur through rising productivity through better logistics and infrastructure, rising urbanisation and skilled employment. Significant opportunities exist in technology, renewable energy, infrastructure and manufacturing. The country’s focus on sustainability, electric mobility, and artificial intelligence will be crucial for future growth. The services sector, particularly ICT-led innovation, will also play a vital role. INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES India’s inflation dynamics are indeed interesting. With headline CPI at 5.5%, it’s at the higher end of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range, largely due to a recent spike in food prices, which is expected to be cyclical. Core inflation, however, is more stable at 3.6%. Given the cyclical slowdown, the RBI might consider cutting rates in early 2025 to support the economy. Meanwhile, India’s 10-year bond yield has been falling, now at 6.88%, which is close to its 25-year average and 57 basis points lower than its peak in June 2022. This decline in yields could indeed be conducive to faster growth, and any rate cuts would likely help maintain momentum during this cyclical weak spot. Currently the market size of India’s pharmaceuticals is approximately US$63bn. According to a recent EY FICCI report, it is estimated to reach US$130 billion in value by the end of 2030 (and US$450bn by 2047). Additionally, India has the 3rd highest market share by volume in the global market for pharmaceutical products, which has already exceeded US$1 trillion. THRIVING INDUSTRIES The IT Services industry contributes close to 7.5% to India’s GDP. The industry generates US$250bn, with a significant part coming from exports and creating employment for over 5.5 million people. By 2030, this is expected to grow to US$350bn, with a further 2 million jobs to be added. India holds a significant position in the global IT services industry. As of recent estimates, India accounts for approximately 55% of the global market for IT services. This dominance is driven by a combination of factors, including a large, skilled workforce, cost advantages, and strong governmental support. The country’s IT services sector continues to grow, with increasing demand for digital transformation, cloud computing, and software development services. GENERIC PHARMACEUTICALS India’s has built an enviable industry in manufacturing of generic pharmaceuticals. This expertise has been built over the last 20 years and is leading to rising market share globally. The industry is being driven by: Government support for operational plants which have added capacity to supply the world. During the pandemic, India established itself as a leading exporter of generic pharmaceuticals and vaccines. As a result, India is well-positioned to see significant export growth. The largest number of FDA-approved production sites outside of the US. India has registered 376 facilities with the FDA for FY2024, including 200 Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) facilities, 134 Finished Dosage Form (FDF) facilities; an An upcoming patent “cliff”, with at least 16 blockbuster drugs coming out of their patent periods. India’s economic scale, number of scientists and production capacity make it one of the cheapest locations for manufacture in the world. This places India’s generic pharmaceutical exporters in a strong position to gain market share. Tariffs Since his victory, Trump’s tariffs have been much talked about. They will have a potential negative impact on India. However, India’s trade with the US only stands at US$76bn, relative to its almost US$4tn economy. Its imports to the US include gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, electrical and electronic goods, engineering products, apparel, and marine products. Food Prices India continues to face challenges when it comes to food price volatility, driven byweather/monsoon. Food is close to 45% of India’s CPI basket and is responsible for India’s recentstubborn inflation, which can have a significant impact on the spending power of Indians. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) India remains an attractive region for foreign direct investment. In FY24, India received US$71bn,which was slightly lower than peak flow in FY22 of US$85bn. This is not